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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.